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Less than one week
I dropped an application for a new passport in the mail last Thursday, after checking the State Department page for timing, and seeing “3-4 weeks” for expedited processing ($100 more, with overnight shipping both ways), and “6-12 weeks” for vanilla processing. I ponied up for the expedited, on the theory of you-never-know.
The processing center got the application on Monday (so much for $28 overnight shipping USPS), and I had a new passport in my hands the following Thursday. So that means it took them not 3-4 weeks, but more like 24-36 hours.
Extrapolating, I guess I should have saved the $100, and I'd have still gotten the passport in at worst another week. Or maybe linear extrapolation is not the right metric, but still pretty impressive. At least for $100, I got my money's worth.